Feb 24, 2025 · In 2023, we made changes to the way we calculated our favorability, approval, generic congressional ballot and national 2024 Republican primary polling averages.

Feb 14, 2025 · State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Nov 28, 2022 · State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Feb 25, 2025 · State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Apr 7, 2020 · Who will win the Ohio primary? Ohio will vote on April 28th. This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast. See the …

Apr 7, 2020 · Who will win the Ohio primary? Ohio will vote on April 28th. This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast. See the …

Looking for the national forecast? Click me! We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model …

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals).

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals).

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals).